Forex Autopilot System Review Part 2: Analyzing Potential Profitability In The Worst Possible Scenario

June 6, 2008

In Part I of the article I introduced our audience to the newly released Forex Autopilot electronic adviser. I am sure everyone will agree that the prospect of having a 100% automated software execute profitable trades for you while you’re sleeping, golfing, spending time with your family, taking care of other aspects of your business or enjoying life’s little precious moments seems very attractive.

But how far is this dream from reality? Can the Forex Autopilot system really help you achieve it? Let’s do some calculations and find out!

WARNING: If even simple math gives you a headache you may find this article hard to follow… hopefully the potential for making massive amounts of money without too much effort on your part will keep you interested! At the very least you could skip to the bottom and check the bottom line numbers.

In this analysis we will always try to be conservative. What this means is that if for example our chances of success are between 75% and 80% we will use 75% (or even lower). Similarly if we are looking at a risky aspect of the Forex Autopilot system we will take the highest probability of failure. This will allow us to project the behavior of the Forex Autopilot system in the worst possible scenario and our actual results when using the system should outperform these projections.

Based on results reported by various sources, e.g. here
http://www.scoutforex.com-a.googlepages.com/StrategyReport_02June.htm
the Forex Autopilot trades opened between early this year and today have the following ratio of winner/loser/no-gain orders on average:

1. Forex Autopilot System Profit / Loss Ratio:
W:94% / L:6% / N:0%

Instead of the average reported numbers, let us use system performance results, reported in the worst case of Forex Autopilot System performance records I have seen:
W:76% / L:17% / N:7%

If we eliminate the No-Gain orders as insignificant (they don’t influence our bottom line), then the W/L percentage ratio becomes:
W = 76 / (76+17) = 82%;
L = 17 / (76+17) = 18%;

W:82% / L:18% / N:0%

These are our worst possible numbers and they, of course, don’t look at all as good as the average numbers.

Let us see if it is still possible to make money with the Forex Autopilot system under these circumstances?

2. Forex Autopilot System Monthly Trade Frequency
Based on the same results the software closes 1-2 trades every day. This means the Forex Autopilot Software completes about 45 transactions every month.

3. Forex Autopilot System Average Pips per Trade (Win/Loss)
As can be concluded from the same set of results an average Winner trade is 23 pips whereas an average Loss trade is -13 pips. As per above “conservative” approach let us assume that in our case the average loss trade will actually be equal to the average profit trade.

Now let’s take a hypothetical $1000 account and connect the dots.

4. Forex Autopilot System Monthly/Yearly Calculations:
Following our decision for conservative approach we will not risk more than 3% of our deposit. This means that if we want to allow our trade to go at most 23 pips against us (as per above average) we will have no more than 0.1 lots in trade at any given time. Since the Forex Autopilot system sometimes has 2-3 trades open at the same time we will reduce the number of lots to trade to 0.01, which is 10 times less.

As you can see we are really stretching the Forex Autopilot System abilities but that is the only way to go if you want to get a realistic estimate of the system’s performance. As we all know - in real life something will always go wrong, so we better be prepared!

Ok, here’s the formula:

0.01 Lots x 23 pips = 0.01 x $100,000 x (23/10,000) = $2.30

This is the size of our “worst possible” trade (+$2.30 for loss trades, -$2.30 for winner trades)

We have 45 trades on average every month, with 76% being winners, 17% losers and 7% no-gain.

76% x 45 = 34 profit trades
17% x 45 = 8 loss trades
7% x 45 = 3 no-gain trades (0 balance)

As average trade in dollars is $2.30.
34 x $2.30 = $78.20 profits
8 x -$2.30 = -$13.80 losses
(the no-gain trades of course are not interesting…)

Total = $64.40

CONCLUSION
So your monthly profits, in the WORST CASE SCENARIO should be around $64 or 6.4% (of $1000). Using the power of compounding, you can see that your yearly results will be $1000 * 1.064 ^ 12 (1.064 to the power of 12) = $1000 * 2.105 = $2105 per year.

$2000 may not seem too impressive but that’s only because you started with an initial balance of $1000!

Remember - we were cheating all along, trying our best to make forex autopilot software look bad and to stack all odds against it and yet it more than doubled our initial investment in 1 year!

Not bad.

Compare this result with an average equity market return of 11%-18% per year (and likely to be much worse in the coming years due to US heading for recession). This would generate you $180 of profits on your initial investment of $1000. Compare it with the measely 4%-5% interest if you leave your money in the bank.

Your cost to enter this opportunity? $800? 500? Nope! Not even four hundred bucks! The price of the forex-autopilot is $399. If you happen to buy it during one of the days when they have a promotion (75%) it will be only $99!

Interested? Click the link above and check it out! What have you got to lose? As mentioned in Part I of the article - the Forex Autopilot system comes with an 8-week money back guarantee which turns your purchase into a risk-free trial!

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